Inside the ‘Shadow Surge’: Local Police Help Drive ICE Arrests to New Heights

A Marshall Project analysis of ICE data published by researchers at UC Berkeley and UCLA found that immigration arrests more than doubled in 15 states and Washington, D.C., after the administration shifted away from high-profile city operations, with arrests climbing from March 2026 and rising sharply by July. Roughly 2,000 state and local law enforcement agencies have signed agreements to conduct immigration stops or hand over people in local jails, and ICE has set monthly records for new 287(g) partners since June. Texas accounted for a quarter of all immigration arrests in July, and ICE logged more than 7,000 arrests in Florida that month, more than triple July 2025. In 2024 no local police agency in Missouri or Ohio held a 287(g) agreement; 130 agencies in Missouri and 20 in Ohio now do. ICE data show half of July arrests were of people with no prior contact with the criminal justice system.