ICE Raids and H-2A Migrant Pay Cuts Are Devastating California Economies

New research quantifies the economic toll of ICE enforcement in California’s Central Coast: ICE raids in Oxnard alone have caused direct crop losses of $3 billion to $7 billion, with spillover into other sectors. Trump’s October 2025 changes to the H-2A foreign-worker wage rule and new $3-per-hour housing deductions are projected to cut farmworker pay by $4.4 billion to $5.4 billion annually — roughly 10–12% of agricultural wages — pushing H-2A rates as low as $13.90/hour, below California’s $16.90 minimum. Santa Barbara County farmworkers alone face losses of $126 million to $152 million per year.